Whiter than Rice

Tuesday, November 29, 2005

It's not me, it's my ovaries

Intersting Conversation Today:

老峻: Tony, 你最近很不耐凡,脾氣很差,很暴躁,感覺像個不定時炸彈一樣. 而且一直抱怨在那邊碎碎念.
(Tony, you're really irritable these days, you know, bad temper, like a ticking time bomb. And you bitch about everything and anything)

Tony: 他媽的我很愛抱怨是很正常的啊. 你認識我多久了.
(So? I always bitch and whine. How long have you known me?)

老峻: 不是,你以前抱怨是有主題的. 比較有組織... 都會為那一樣事情抱怨. 你現在是遇到什麼抱怨什麼. 遇到紅綠燈說幹都遇到紅燈,餐廳東西來的慢也要靠北...
(No no no... before your bitching had a central theme. It was more organized... you'd bitch constantly about one thing in particular. Now it's "something comes up, you bitch about it." We hit a red light you bitch about a red light, we wait for an order and you bitch about the order.

Tony: 我脾氣有差嗎?
(I have a bad temper?)

老峻: 有...昨天打球的時候感覺你要爆發了
(C'mon, you almost blew up when we played b-bal yesterday)

Tony: 我看是經痛吧
(I don't know... probably menstrual pains)

老峻: 幹經痛是一個月一次. 你這個都chronic了.
(Fuck, that shit comes once a month. This is becoming chronic.)

Sunday, November 20, 2005

My Big Insano Red Sox Off-season Plan, 2005 Edition, Part III

Here's the final installment of the 3-part miniseries if you will. The support/constructive feedback I've been getting from Therapy is greatly appreciated.

The Position Players:

C: Jason Varitek
Doug Mirabelli
Kelly Shoppach

We have a fine catching tandem to say the least. Jason Varitek hit an awesome 125 *OPS+ as a catcher last year in 539 PA's, and was well worth the 10 million dollars we paid him last year. Whether he'll continue to be worth the 10 million dollars a year for the next 3 years, I have no clue. We all know catchers don't age gracefully, but Jason Varitek is a damn good catcher right now. He looked pretty tired at the end of the year though. He also won a gold glove in which he did not deserve. He's about league average in terms of catcher defense (according to UZR). HOwever, for a catcher he has provided great offense. In general, if he keeps his play up, I'll be very happy to have him around. If he starts aging... let's hope Shoppach is ready

Doug Mirabelli is a good backup catcher. He'll be on the last year of his 1.5mil/yr deal next season. He hit for 89 *OPS+ last year in a backup role, primarily starting when Wake is pitching. He'll probably retire/leave after this season, but again, he's a good backup catcher, and I'm glad he's here next year.

Kelly Shoppach had 16 PA's last year in the majors. He made15 outs. However, he hit pretty well in the minors last year. I hope we don't trade him, because we'll definitly need him around as an insurance policy shoudl one of our 2 veteran catcher hurt themselves, and I think he'll be the backup for good once Mirabelli leaves next year. He's good defensively and will take a walk. His lack of contact... who cares. He walks. He should start the next year in the minors, but probably get a few callups here and there.







Speaking of freedom, I don't think Roberto Petagine is the answer for the Red Sox. He's teh suck defensively, and we have enough lefty bats already. Here's what I propose the Sox do for 1B:

1. Bring back John Olderdude.
The man can still contribute. He hit .289/.344/.451 for a 109 *OPS+ last year in 192 PAs, and despite losing a lot of his range has probably the best hands at 1B. Bring him back next year as a defensive sub who can start should something happen to our starting 1B. I expect his power to regress even more next season, but he shoudl still be able to get on base, but his glove is pretty valuable IMO.

2. Find a RHB slugger at 1B.
My answer: Troy Glaus

Troy Glaus is EXACTLY what the Red Sox need: A power RHB bat at a corner IF position. Glaus should be moved to first because:
a) He was totally tehh suck last year at 3B… I mean, UZR totally ravaged him
b) He was completely healthy last year, but he’s had injury trouble in the past. 1B is less demanding than 3B

Here’s what he hit last year:
.258/.363/.522 = 125 *OPS+
In comparison to KFF:
.272/.355/.399 = 100 *OPS+

There are more reasons I think Glaus would be a good fit for the Sox:
1) his high price tag would make his cost in trade assets less
2) he’s blocking people left and right in Arizona (Conor Jackson and Chad Tracy, Tony Clark will be the backup veteran)
3) Oh F!@# right they hired a new GM who’s not stupid. Damn.

Anyhoo… I hear Diamondback fans want two of Lester/Sanchez/Shoppach. That’s just f’ing ridiculous. Glaus has like 25 million dollars left on his deal, so simply he’s NOT THAT TRADABLE. He’s a good player with question marks.

Here’s what I propose:
Glaus and like 3million dollars for Sanchez, Delcarmen, and Cora.
Delcarmen has value despite his control problems. Lively young arms are still worth stuff in the MLB
Cora is a very good defensive middle IF. And I hear Royce Clayton is leaving the D-backs next year. They can retool the C & C Out Factory by replacing Clayton with Cora! (In all seriousness, Craig Counsell is a damn good player, and he was f’ing jobbed last year out of a GG)

Bring back Tony Graffanino on a 1 year deal. Graff hit a .309/.366/.425 last year, and for a 2B, that’s a plus bat. He was also pretty good defensively last year. We have Pedoria/Petunia in the minors, so we’ll need Graff around for 1 maybe 2 more years. As for the backup 2B… Because I traded Cora in the last bit, Machado will be the backup 2B. He can handle it defensively, pretty good footspeed… that’s all that matters.

We’re pretty much stuck with Renteria. He hit .276/.335/.385 last year, pretty much inline with his career. I wish he hit a little better, but I can live with those numbers. What I can’t live with was how ASS HE WAS DEFENSIVELY LAST YEAR. HE WAS FUCKING ASS IN THE FIELD. FOR 10 FUCKING MILLION DOLLARS YOU’D THINK WE COULD HAVE GOTTEN A GUY THAT COULD THROW TO FIRST BASE. We have HRam in the minors coming up… could be used as trade bait, I’d much rather keep him, because we really could use all the toolsy prospects we can get. Backup: again, Machado

Kevin Youkilis will FINALLY take over at 3B next year. In the past 2 years, he has hit .265/.376/.411 in 343 PA’s in the majors. He’s also a decent 3rd baseman. I’m looking forward to Youk starting fulltime next year.

Bill Mueller filed for free agency, and he’s actually one player I’d really miss. We got some big hits and good years out of Bill, and he makes Mariano Rivera his prison bitch. It’s unfortunate that he’s old and declining and with wonky knees, because the guy is still a pretty decent switch-hitter.

I say the Red Sox put out a 1 year contract on the table with a slight pay cut and honestly tell him that we’d like to keep him around as a platoon/bench role. He COULD and should be starting elsewhere, but we should at least TRY to keep him. With Bill Mueller around, we could start him only against RHP at Home (and get pretty awesome numbers out of him), and the rest of the time keep him on the bench as the backup 3B and a valuable switch-hitting bat on the bench. He could also fill in at 2B should the situation get desperate. The point is that for his price tag, he could STILL HELP US A GREAT DEAL.

Big Papi is da man.

Keep Manny Ramirez. This is getting stupid. You can’t find anybody to replace Manny’s bat in the Red Sox bat this offseaon. You just cannot. His defense and baserunning is tehh total suck, but we need to keep his RIGHT HANDED bat in the lineup. Keep Manny, but find a good defensive sub/pinch runner.

I like Johnny Damon. I hate Scott Boras. Anything beyond a 3 year deal for a CF over 30 is stupid. That’s all I gotta say about this.

Should we have to replace him:
Fat Fuck wants out of town eh? Wants to go back to San Diego?

Hey Towers… Flip us Dave Roberts for Fat fuck! We DEFINITELY need this guy back in town.
1) We need a leadoff man/speedy defensive CF should Damon leave town.
2) Should Damon not leave town Dave Roberts can pinch run/defensive sub for Manny
3) He could pinch run for ANYBODY.

Plus, he serves us the added advantage of being leverage against Boras/Johnny Damon/Michelle Damon. I’m pretty sure there would be ZERO fan backlash should Dave Roberts start at CF instead of Johnny Damon next year. Scotty can’t use the “Clutch World Series winner” thing against the Sox as leverage, because our insurance backup plan IS the Clutch Playoff Hero.

Trot Nixon was decent last year at the plate. He would have been better at the plate had he not died after the all-star break. He had surgery in the offseason, so his defense should improve (hopefully it’ll help his hitting too). However, if I see him get more than 50 AB’s against lefties next year I’ll have an aneurysm. We need a platoon partner for Trot. It’s that simple. Gabby is gone, and he actually wasn’t good enough. Jay Payton was a bust last year. I think the Trot Platoon Partner Problem will become a bigger issue for the Red Sox next year, despite the Manny/Krappy Starting Pitching/Krappy Bullpen/Larry Lucchino Douchebag of Liberty/CHB issues already surround the team

Sunday, November 13, 2005

My Big Insano Red Sox Off-season Plan, 2005 Edition, Part II

I'm incredibly grateful for the amount of constructive feedback and discussion I received on Therapy. Now for some feedback before part II:

What's more, I don't see much reason to think Foulke won't rebound to something like previous levels. He was great for 5 years, and has had surgery to fix his injury. Under your plan, I would use Ryan and him as the ace relievers and Timlin as the "closer-outer." That way, Timlin almost always comes in with no one on.

I actually tried using CFBPS do predict Keith Foulke's performance, but just couldn't do it. Couldn't do it. No matter how much optimism I tried to put in, I just couldn't forsee the fat cracker drunk rebounding to his 2004 Deity-like levels and leading us to another World Series. Or getting out of a 2 runners on 1 out jam in the 8th inning without giving up a run. Can't do it. Can't do it can't do it can't do it.

Call it an irrationality on velocity, but a guy who threw 89mph TOPS getting injured and possibly losing a couple of miles coupled with the fact he only had one good outpitch that requires pinpoint control and a velocity difference from the fastball?

I hope he becomes great. But right now I can only forsee "decent" as the best possibly scenario.

As to whether you keep Bradford, I'd say it's either him or Myers. You can afford to have 1 guy on the staff throwing 45 IP, but not 2 of them. I vote to keep Bradford and ditch Myers.

I like Myers better because he's a lefty. I'd say we keep both, because Bradford is more than capable of pitching 60IP

Then promise him (Ryan) the closer's job. And tell him to go #### himself* as soon as the ink dries. He belongs to a union that collectively bargained a contract which does not allow players to decide where they play or when they are used.

I had thought of this too, but then BJ Ryan is probably not the last FA I'd like the Sox to sign ever again.

Yoshinoya for a sandwich/burger joint is a terrible trade.

I wouldn't trade the Yoshinoya joint for Johan Santana. If any of you Therapudians ever run into John Henry, lobby hard for a Yoshinoya joint in Fenway. Baseball is good. Baseball and beefdon? Probably better than the awkward sympathy sex I'll end up having with a female friend when I'm 35.

Anyhoo... Here's the next bit:

The Rotation

Starter #1: Curt Schilling

Curt had a rough year last year. He sucked as the starter and he blew (blown?) as the closer. The peripherals weren't actually "that" bad last year (4:1 k/bb rate), but the dinger rate was pretty high... over 1 dinger per 9 innings. The hit rate also went through the roof.

I think Curt'll be better next year. He'll be better from the bloody sock injury, and he wants to make the HOF, so he'll probably still pitch another two years.

A lot of people don't like Curt, and I can understand that. He talks a bit too much. He may be a douche, but he's OUR douche. We love him, and he'll be our ace for the next 2 years.

Starter #2: Matt Clement

For the first time in his career, Matt Clement did not suck because he was walking people left and right or because balls were leaving the yard at Milton-esque rates. He sucked because his strikeout rate dropped significantly. That's what happened. He couldn't strike anybody out.

Also, he stunk up the joint in the second half. I don't know why. I'm not a pitching coach, I don't know. I can only provide unscientific speculation and uneducated bullshit, and my bullshit excuse is that he was overworked in the first half. Make sure he doesn't get overworked in the first half? Keep extra attention to make sure his mechanics don't go funny?

I don't know.

Probably the goatee

Edit: There's plenty of speculation that the beaning caused his suckage.

Starter #3: Brandon Arroyo

Oh I'm sorry, [/Tim McCarver]

2005 Bronson Arroyo:

I don't know what sucked more, his music, his pitching or his shitty-ass haircut.

Starter #4: Spot in which needs filling

Since the Fat Fuck Cracker SOB wants to leave town, we'll need somebody to fill this spot. He pitched 180 IP last year at 99 *ERA+.

Easy to replace you say? I just looked at the 2006 FA list.

1. We shoudln't be paying 100 gabillion dollars a year for AJ Burnett. The guy's had TWO years worth the money, which was 2005 and 2002. All his other years he's been hurt. "Young" (28 already) pitcher with velocity and chronic injury problems? Yeah, we TOTALLY should give that guy a 40 million dollar contract. I mean, Carl Pavano, living the high life!

2. Kevin Millwood: 31 years old. Coming off a huge career bounceback season. His agent is Scott Boras. Next

3. Paul Byrd: I don't know, I just flipped thorugh his stats, I'm starting to like this guy. I know, 35 year old righty soft tosser, but he's been pretty good his career. For 5 million dollars he did give the Angels 200 IP of 112 *ERA+ ball last year, something the Red Sox last year couldn't get if they had the love child of Walter Johnson and Bob Gibson. We should take a look at this guy, see how much he wants, I don't know.

4. Jarrod Washburn: Lefty coming off a really good 131 *ERA+ season, but with a K/BB ratio of less than 2? Coming from the Angels with a really good defense behind him? Been krappy for 2 years before that, but has a reputation of being a "winner" with the 2002 WS Winners? Next Scott Boras (+)

5. Kenny Rogers: 41 years old. Would be in jail if he were a minority. Next

6. Jamie Moyer: threw 200 IP's of league average ball last year. Ancient lefty soft tosser that never walks people. I love this guy already. (I've always been a big Moyer fan. He was absolutely teh suck in 2004, but was really good for a long stretch before that.) May be worth a flier, not sure.

7. Vincente Padilla: 100K/74BB's? 96 *ERA+ in less than 200 innings? but is "talented" enough to get big money on the open market? Next

8. Tom Glavine:
Lefty soft tosser that doesn't walk people?? Sign me up. His future hall of fame status might drive his cost up though. Still a good starter but not what he was used to be. The K's just have disappeared over the years, but the fact that he cut his dinger rate dramatically last year actually make me really high on this guy.

9. Esteban Loaiza: On and off, on and off. Incredibly inconsistent. We dont' win the 2004 World Series without him. He'll want big money after a decent year last year. With our luck if we sign him he'll DEFINITELY bust. next.

10. Matt Morris: good track record, good 2005 with a shitty 2004, injury problems, want big money... this is becoming a recurring theme.

11. Jeff Suppan: been tehre, done that, and again, another guy whom we owe the 2004 World Series too.

12. Mark Redman: Actually has an option with the Pirates. He's not that good anyway. next.

13. Jeff Weaver: Not actually that good, Scott Boras client.. another recurring theme eh?

14. Byun-Hyun Kim: Make your own witty comments. I've stopped trying.

Starter #5: Tim Wakefield

I think a pitching staff sucks when the best pitcher is a 40 year old knuckleballerr. I love Wake, I love him in the 5th spot, but if he's the best starter on our team, there's trouble.

Tuesday, November 08, 2005

My Big Insano Red Sox Off-season Plan, 2005 Edition, Part I

I did it last year... I'm doing it again this year.

The Red Sox are still a good team despite being swept by the White Sox. We also have some problems we need to fix.

Part I: The Bullpen

The bullpen really hinges on 2 things:
1) The acquisition of the "relief ace".
2) The fixing of Keith Foulke.

If both those things can be done, the bullpen will become deadly.

I have a "modified" line on bullpen usage. Yes, I believe the best bullpen pitcher should be brought on in the 7th and 8th innigns to clean up messes, but I also think they dont' necessarily need to "finish" the game in the 9th inning, instead bringing up a less good but still competent enough pitcher. I also believe that the relief ace is to be "pampered" with if you will, avoiding overwork and pitching too many consecutive days. Hard to find Marshalls and Quisenberrys these days.

Without further ado...

Step 1: The Acquisition of BJ Ryan

I don't know how much money he's looking for, but I'd offer him something along the lines of 19 million over 3 years. For the traditionalists, this is a big lefty with a live fastball. For the stats folk, this is a lefty with a super K-rate.

This guy can turn the pen around for us folks.

Of course, there's a few problems:
1) Eveyrbody else will be bidding for him
2) According to some sources (Mike Emiegh of Primer), BJ won't want to go anywhere he won't get to close. Which I don't want him to do here because it's a waste of talent. But if he wants to go to NYY, he DEFINITLY won't get to close THERE, so I think if the money is right the role won't be an issue.

BJ Ryan: Bullpen Relief Ace 2005: 85 IP's of 140 *ERA+ with a K rate over 9. Sounds jolly.


The man won us the World Series in 2004 Folks. That and his refusal to undergo surgery in the offseason last year probably caused his total teh suckage last year. He needs to be fixed.

I actually have no idea how to do this, but he needs to be healthy first, then we can start working on his pitching. Supposedly he tried like 16 different release points last year, and he tried to throw a krappy slider...

Stop drinking and fix yoruself Keith! We're payign you 8 million dollars!

The role of Keith Foulke: the "traditional" 9th inning closer. If he can fix himself, he still probably won't be the "old" Keith Foulke, but if he can finish a game by getting 3 outs with nobody on base with an *ERA+ of in the 115-130's... he could be a valuable pitcher again. 65 IP's of 120's *ERA+ from Keith would be excellent.

Step 3: Keep Little Papi in the Pen

Here's what Sox Therapy Had to say:

Papelbon has only been pitching for a few years and the majority of his pitching experience has been as a reliever. His brief stint as a starter last year was pretty rocky, and it appears that his secondary pitches may not be reliable enough for him to be a consistently good SP. Add to this the fact that he has never thrown more than ~150 IP in any season. All of these factors add up to Pap, in my mind, being much more likely to succeed as a reliever than a starter. My WAG would be 80-90 IP, 3.50 ERA as a reliever, 150-170 IP, 4.30 ERA as a starter. That’s either a horse in the pen or a starter who overtaxes the pen.

Yeah, what they said. Keep him in the pen. Make him the #2 Relife Ace Option behind Ryan.

We still need a nickname for him, and they won't let me call him the Papsmear. Maybe the Papilloma? That's like a DISEASE! A DISEASE UPON HITTERS!!

Step 4: Bring Back Mike Myers

I mean, I could probably get a hit off of this guy, but the man kills left handers, and has done it for his entire life. He had a really good year last year actually (but with only 37IP). Bring him back I say. I know my fellow stat folk don't necessarily believe in the LaRussa LOOGY, but the guy is a GOOD LOOGY. He can get lefties out. It's not like he's one of those Run Fairy types wherre he can't get ANYBODY out.

Step 5: Never Let Mike Timlin Come On Inherting Runners

He re-upped at 3.5 mil a year I think. He had a good year last year, kept the walks down, kept the ball in the park, and was a workhorse again. That being said, he coudln't keep an inherited runner from scoring to save his life.

He's a good pitcher. I have no problems with him pitching in the late innings. Won't give the other taem freebies. But please, he's not a relief ace. He doens't strike out enough batters to do this. I say his role on the team should be pitching middle relief. You know, start the 7th, start the 6th, maybe start the 8th, but DON'T PUT HIM ON WITH INHERITED RUNNERS.

Step 6: I actually don't know what to do with Chad Bradford

I like the guy, he's still pretty effective, but he's had some minor injury tweaks, and only pitched 23 IP's last year for the Sox (mid-season acquisition). He's not as good as he used to be, but again, I like what he does desipte the high hit rate. Keeps the ball in the park, doesn't walk folks. The thing is for this last bullpen spot we might need a long man that can occasionally start. Tried John Halama but failed miserably. I say we keep Chad for the time being and see what happens.

Step 7: keep Delcarmen and Hansen in the minors

Craig Hansen showed us he could be an effective major league reliever last year. but he definitly need some time in AAA. Drafted in June, majors the next year? No way no how. Give him a little more time, maybe he'll be ready by mid-season, I don't know.

Manny Delcarmen needs A LOT more work too. In 9 Innings he walked 7 guys. That krap in the majors will burn you. Showed some good strikeout potential. Back to the minors he goes.